Brokering the Unbrokerable

MIDDLE EAST

Biden: "deal is in Hamas' hands" — Negotiations in Cairo appear to have reached an impasse, with Hamas continuing to demand a permanent ceasefire in exchange for hostages — a proposition which Israel, which has vowed to destroy Hamas, will not accept. "There has been a rational offer. The Israelis have agreed to it," Biden told reporters, seeming to blame the breakdown in negotiations on Hamas. (Reuters, WSJ, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel)

A breakthrough for Biden on Israel-Lebanon? — Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that indirect talks to end hostilities along the Lebanon-Israel border may begin next week, during Ramadan. The talks w0uld aim to fully implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for armed groups like Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese army to deploy there instead. Mikati said U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein had proposed a plan centered on Resolution 1701, including development aid for southern Lebanon. Israel has long insisted that implementation of Resolution 1701 is a precondition for peace. (Reuters)

Rights groups: Iran executed 834 people last year — That figure is up 40 percent, and the second highest numbers since records have started to be kept 16 years ago, human rights organizations say. Most of the executions were not acknowledged by the government — official records account for only 125 hangings last year. Rights groups said Iran was weaponizing the death penalty to instill societal fear, especially after widespread protests in 2022. (BBC)

EUROPE

Can the EU's ambitious defense plan succeed? — The European Commission caught journalists' attention yesterday by announcing an ambitious rearmament strategy, alongside a cash pot of some €1.5 billion called the European Defense Investment Programme. But the reality is that on issues as weighty as defense, the Commission doesn't call the shots, but has to defer to EU member states. And raising adequate funds through debt issues — €100 billion is envisioned by the Commission for the initiative to be successful — is also not likely in the cards. (Politico)

A lack of planning bedevils Ukraine — Ukrainian forces are mostly managing to hold the line against Russian assaults amid growing arms shortages. But sloppy strategy is starting to bite, too. Ukrainian spokesmen have tried to portray the withdrawal from Avdiivka last month as an orderly fallback to pre-planned defensive positions. But soldiers report that fallback positions had not been adequately prepared, and that they continue to be pressed by Russia as they retreat. (CNN, NYT)

ASIA

China's new Foreign Minister could be an Oxford-educated charmer — Liu Jianchao, a Xi loyalist with a sterling reputation, is rumored to be favored for the role. Liu majored in English at Beijing Foreign Studies University and studied international relations at Oxford before taking up his first post as a translator with the foreign ministry. He has served in China's mission to Britain and later as ambassador to Indonesia and the Philippines. During his time as ministry spokesman, he was known for humorous off-the-cuff comments while making a no-nonsense defense of China's interests. (Reuters)

India's Foreign Minister woos Japan — India's top diplomat Subrahmanyam Jaishankar landed in Tokyo today, the final stop on his East Asian tour. On the agenda with Japan: military cooperation and an ambitious plan to work together on emerging technologies. India last week approved a maiden semiconductor fabrication project that will be developed by local conglomerates and firms from Japan, Taiwan and Thailand. (Nikkei, The Hindu)

AMERICAS

As Haiti melts down, its prime minister reappears — Prime Minister Ariel Henry landed in Puerto Rico yesterday after departing Kenya last Friday. The intervening days have seen a massive spike in violence in Haiti, including a prison break and an attack on the airport by armed gangs. With information scarce, it is not clear whether Prime Minister Henry will attempt to return to Haiti, or if gangs have de facto succeeded in overthrowing his government. (CNN, BBC)

Prison looms larger for Bolsonaro — The former heads of Brazil's Army and Air Force have confirmed to federal police that former President Jair Bolsonaro discussed a draft decree to prevent the handover of power after he lost the 2022 election to Lula. Bolsonaro is currently banned from politics until 2030 and is under investigation for various criminal probes related to his attempts to overturn the election results. He could be facing a prison sentence of up to 55 years. (Reuters)

Venezuela could get sanctioned again — In a perhaps-naive fit of positive-sum thinking, the Biden administration agreed to lift some sanctions on Venezuela's authoritarian government late last year. The move was meant as a sweetener after President Maduro signed a deal with the opposition guaranteeing free and fair elections in 2024. Now, with the election date officially set for late July, the main opposition candidate barred from running on a technicality, and the sanctions easement set to expire in April, the United States needs to decide whether to continue with carrots or start brandishing the stick. (WSJ, NYT)