Spy Games, Nuclear Games
ASIA
China Turns an Aussie MP — The head of Australia's intelligence agency, Mike Burgess, revealed that Chinese spies had successfully coopted an unnamed high-ranking former politician, alongside various businessmen, academics, students, and law enforcement officials across the country. The spy chief's unprecedented public candor was apparently done to signal to China's spies that their network had been rolled up. (BBC)
Pyongyang Makes Good on Its Promises — North Korea has delivered 3 million shells to Russia to date, according to South Korea's defense minister Shin Won-sik, in exchange for help in developing surveillance satellite technology. For its part, the EU pledged to deliver 1 million shells to Ukraine by March, but has only delivered a third of that figure to date, and hopes to meet its target by the end of the year. (Nikkei, Bloomberg)
New Besties with Beijing — China and Sierra Leone signed a joint statement on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, as Presidents Xi Jinping and Julius Maada Bio met in Beijing. Sierra Leone is starting its two-year non-permanent membership on the UN Security Council this year. President Bio was the first African president to visit China this year. (Global Times, Sinocism)
EUROPE
How to Fight a Nuclear War — How quickly would Moscow be willing to go nuclear in a conflict? Quite quickly, leaked Russian strategic documents show. Such an approach, known as "escalate to de-escalate," has long been suspected by Western officials to be a part of Russia's nuclear doctrine. This knowledge has likely kept Western policymakers hesitating to arm Ukraine too much throughout the course of the war. (FT)
Values Take a Back Seat in Europe — Germany blocked an EU measure that would hold firms accountable for human rights abuses in their supply chains. The law was meant to bring Europe in line with existing U.S. restrictions on sourcing parts or raw materials from northwest China, where the Uyghur minority is being repressed. German firms BASF and Volkswagen have factories in Xinjiang. Germany's abstention in the vote emboldened Italy and Bulgaria to also abstain, joining Sweden, Austria and Finland, which were already opposed to the new law. (FT)
Ukrainian Villages Fall — Russia took three additional villages today as its forces advanced after taking the long fought-over city of Avdiivka earlier this month. While military analysts say the villages are of little strategic significance, the cascading losses show how Ukrainian forces are increasingly coming under pressure. Some analysts are speculating that Ukrainian lines were quickly collapsing in Avdiivka, leading to a less orderly retreat than official pronouncements tried to convey. (WaPo, Tatarigami_UA on X)
Abortion as a French Right — The French parliament will vote today on enshrining a woman's right to an abortion in its constitution. The measure is favored by 86% of voters. France, however, still makes abortions illegal after 14 weeks. (France24)
Orban's Snubs Biden, Heads to Mar-a-Lago — Viktor Orban and Donald Trump will reportedly meet next week in Florida. The White House has no information on the Hungarian PM's plans to come to Washington. (NYT)
THE AMERICAS
A Temporary Respite — Migrant flows through the Darien Gap have completely halted after two major boat operator companies shut down operations, apparently in protest of Colombian authorities arresting two of the firms' captains. The arrests appear to be the start of a Colombian effort to limit migrants' passage further north, done at the behest of, and in partnership with, the Biden administration. With more than 100 migrants per day arriving to Necocli, the town where these boats usually depart from, dangerous overcrowding is likely to follow, putting pressure on Colombian authorities to reopen the route. (NYT)
